Craig Hemke – Precious Metals Surge, Dollar Weakness, and Silver Breakout Signals
We kick off June with a powerful move across the precious metals complex, as both gold and silver surge higher, defying expectations of seasonal weakness. In this KE Report Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, founder of the TF Metals Report, joins us to break down what’s driving the action, why silver’s breakout matters, and how this rally could evolve.
Key themes covered in this interview:
- Gold rallies $83 and silver jumps 5%, signaling strength despite flat equity markets.
- Craig highlights the summer rally potential, spurred by a falling U.S. Dollar Index and positive technical setups.
- Silver’s breakout above key levels may be activating algorithmic buying and could spark broader momentum across miners.
- Craig sees a shift in sentiment as investors revisit mining equities, especially after Q1 earnings and improving margins heading into Q2.
- Discussion includes CoT reports, open interest washouts, and hedge fund positioning.
- The interview also touches on macroeconomic signals, potential commodity rotation, and geopolitical catalysts impacting safe-haven flows.
Visit TF Metals Report for Craig’s ongoing analysis
I’ve had a lot of discussions lately with investors at conferences and on calls that we are on with different sector pundits, and in private messages with fellow investors, and people often ask what’s catching my attention. For the last month or so I’ve been sharing with investors that I’ve actually been starting to ring the register on some big moves in the intermediate gold and silver producers and royalty companies to rotate some of those funds down into the beat up junior silver producers and really beat up uranium producers and advanced developers.
In both strategies most other investors wrinkled up their noses in a look of disgust or would utter something like “Really? Man, those are dead money and too risky and I wouldn’t consider touching those when gold is doing so well.” (then came the part after where they’d soft bash the companies I mentioned getting animated by as dogs and laggards etc….). Classic.
In my mind that is precisely the way I like it for contrarian positioning, especially when the sector becomes an echo chamber of people spouting off that you only want to be in the biggest and best names and top quality. As we’ve discussed many times, I totally disagree with that bias, and the percentage gain results from prior bull cycles would disprove that as well, but hey to each their own…
I actually really love that there are so many PM investors that are still so negative on these small silver producers and still punishing them for past underperformance instead of skating to where the puck is going… It is actually far easier to buy when things are out of favor and when people are incorrectly extrapolating out past results out into the future forever, without doing more critical analysis on how things are changing or developing.
At least today we started to see more investors wake up to how most of the smaller and higher cost silver producers are actually at an inflection point, and it is likely that Q2 is going to be another step change higher for them.
Instead of getting positioned when prices were low and buying value, they were turning their noses up to these stocks based on backward looking results. They often would ignore the messaging from the CEOs and board about how things were setting up for better results coming into 2025. Now PM investors that do finally start waking up to what is going on are going to be left with chasing these stories higher for the next 12-18 months.
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Guanajuato Silver (GSVR.V) was up 16.7% today
Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (SM.V) was up 10.2% today
Endeavour Silver (EXK) was up 10% today
Impact Silver (IPT.V) was up 9.5% today
Silver X Mining (AGX.V) was up 7.7% today
Just sayin’…. 😉
If silver futures go up to break above $35 again for the 3rd time in under a year, and pricing stays there this time (unlike in October and March where it was fleeting) then these junior silver producers are really going to surprise a lot of resource investors (even many PM bulls).
In recent weeks I’ve been saying that Impact silver would do well when silver meaningfully outperforms gold and that’s what we’re now seeing. But it’s better than that because Impact’s status as a bellwether remains intact. It performed very well last week on good volume because it “knew” that silver was about to break out versus gold and today it did so.
https://schrts.co/trZeumXA
Silver is now about 97.5 to 1 where a few days ago it was 101 to 1 (in relation to gold). Silver when it breaks out of the blocks moves very fast at a breakneck speed. DT
Now we need some follow through and a good weekly close.
Silver:Gold closed above its 50 day MA today for the first time in 9 weeks.
https://schrts.co/vxTREBbb
Matthew,
I’m fully loaded with AG and CDE – hoping that AG would reach $10 during this run – maybe that’s too optimistic. Its doing a rounding bottom just like 2016-2020 period. Looks like finally Barrick is getting ready to join the party. What do your charts say about AG and ABX?
CJ, I don’t think you’re nearly optimistic enough. Today was AG’s third largest volume day ever and it looks like a breakout is underway that will set the stage for much bigger breakouts. The upside coming your way is far beyond $10.
https://schrts.co/yVXmDVvH
That’s encouraging to know. I’m planning on adding AG shares on pullbacks. Thanks Matthew.
Barrick also has a ton of upside. It’s just 69 cents from a 3 year high and that will just be the beginning unless the bears can stop the sector this week.
https://schrts.co/ybeaBZAa
B monthly
https://schrts.co/bHmbytbY
B weekly priced in gold
https://schrts.co/NdRasiVK
Scorpio Gold, SGN, three year weekly showing life above resistance. Chart may not be updated this morning to $0.19…
It was unplanned but I added to Kootenay and Brixton today. For Kootenay the reason was the 10% pullback to fill this morning’s gap (a gift!) and for Brixton it was just another look at the technicals combined with a few other things.
Convincing move on convincing volume for SLV which finished at its highest price since October.
https://schrts.co/yNgQWaES